1963-Independence-enter Kenyatta/Odinga
2012-New Katiba - enter Odinga/Kenyatta

Well it seems the more things change the more they stay the same.

Njau ya Mbogo.
Maybe Raila should just forget Uhuru and take Peter Kenneth instead. That would be a sure winner. Since Raila is the frontrunner, he has the luxury of picking whoever he likes and still be the winner. it would be a disaster if he opts for Ruto.

I agree Bwana Sajini.

I think from a purely ideological perspective the two (UK and RAO) are incompatible. While its always difficult to understand what our politicians stand for, I would place Uhuru on the Right (conservative) while Raila is more on the Left (progressive). Apart from representing the two best known political families in the nation, they have little else in common. Besides, this would be the most "elitist" ticket you could come up with. Its almost obscene.

Gentlemen,

I beg to differ with both of you. I am sure the next president will not be Uhuru or Raila (this is a bankable fact!). It wont be Kalonzo either! At the risk of sounding illiterate, i can almost guarantee you that the next president will be one Hon. George Mwaura Muthengi aka George Saitoti! Uhuru will not be running for presidency. Instead he will be gunning for the Governorship of either Kiambu or Nairobi. Karua will also not be in the race contrary to believe of many. On the other hand, Raila will run and FAIL.Ruto will run for either the governor's or senators position in rift valley.

Or better still, I wish all these guy scan be thrown into a stinky basket and thrown into the Indian Ocean!

Kanyutu,
Can you bet with Kinuthia Muthengi? What Tsunami will sweep Agwambo from his high ground?

Sajini,

Firstly,i dont understand your pressuposition that Raila is high compared to his rivals (hope your basis is not the junky opinion pools carried by pseudo-research firms).2012 is like light years away and more contendors will definetly emerge.You will surprised how fast and sudden the dynamics can change even in the shortest of time. It was the same case in 2007 when everybody thought Raila would win by not less than 67%. Both sides rigged but it is unlikely Kibaki's rigging was to an extent of whittling the 67% margin that was being bandied around. This time Raila will face the election with more enemies than friends.

Kanyutu,
I agree that Raila might have more enemies than friends. Still, I believe that once the also rans have been weeded out in the preliminary, Raila will emerge top forcing a second round with the runners up. I see Agwambo carrying the day. I say this because politicians are greedy by nature. They like to identify with those with a high chance of success.

One reason why I think it is erroneous to dismiss Raila is that the same logic was used in 2007. Commonsense logic was that Raila was unelectable. If Mr Kibaki had not stolen the election, he could be the president today.

Sajini,

Both candidates rigged, it is only a question of to what degree! In guess time is the best Judge. But the greatest tradegy that will ever befall this country is to have a peoples president- as he likes to be called.That day the country will have switched into a self destruct mode; an uwittingly invitation to doom , a flirtation with death!But again, i may be wrong

With the release of the census figures expect a barrage of political marriages and divorces, alliances, alignments and re-alignments. This is fodder for our ideologically bankrupt political clique.

I hope against hope that the Kenyan people will refuse to be divided and manipulated.

And much as I believe in the democratic utopia, it is my submission that no Kikuyu should stand for president in 2012. Although who should stand should be based on merit, the reality is that in a pluralistic society, compromises can achieve more goodwill compared to meritocratic idealism

Bw. Sajini,

Your sentiments all but endorses the failed Nigerian system of rotational presidency where the presidency rotates between the Northern and the Southern tribes. To me this is an affront to democracy. You cannot have it both ways sir.

Just like you cannot argue that someone is qualified based solely on their ethnicity, you cannot disqualify another based on the same.
If your point is a Kikuyu has occupied the seat therefore no other Kikuyu, qualified or not, should run, I put it to you thus; No Christian should run - we've had 3 already. No man should run - we need gender representation. Heck! you could even say no black person should run.

Nigeria is a perfect example that this arrangement never works. It nearly degenerated into chaos recently when an incapacitated president (a Northerner) won't hand over power to his VP (a Southerner) because its the Northerners time - or as we say in Kenya its their "time to eat"

The whole rotational presidency thing is an admission of failure. It's succumbing to the very same vice we are trying to fight of negative ethnicity. It will justify the 'our time to eat' mentality.

Njau,
I believe that you are also against any form of affirmative action?

Bw. Sajini,

In my understanding, affirmative action is a set of policies that seek to increase representation of women and minorities in education, employment and business wherein there has been historic and/or systematic discrimination/exclusion of such groups.

While I'm in total support of such measures, I am ignorant of their applicability in a democratic political system especially where we are talking about the highest office in the land. Maybe you have a better idea but as I posed to you earlier where do you draw the line?

The notion that an entire community gains an undue advantage simply because the head of state identifies him/herself with that community is a myth that needs to be busted. We must rise above that.

Mr. Moi had his 24 yrs but if there's a person who I truly believe has good ideas and ability to lead the nation to a better future, and that person happens to be a Kalenjin, I want a chance to vote for that person.

Njau ya Mbogo,
I see your point, but large ethnic groups can be hegemonic by misusing their numbers to frustrate talented Kenyans from minority tribes. Unless we have some mechanisms to ensure that a brilliant El-Molo has an equal chance at shot at prestigious national positions, then all the talk of democracy or merit are hot air. Unless you subscribe to the doctrine of survival for the mightiest, it becomes obvious that affirmative action, or whatever better term may apply must be used to address the anomaly.

I understand that communities do not gain undue advantage, but it is those same communities who elect self serving leaders who manipulate the system and ursup power and priviledge.