The dream of RAO being prezzo at the same time as Barrack has at least once been quashed by the Kikuyu. One last time left - 2012! Will the Kikuyu allow it? or will the Kalenjin be the obstacle?

Njau,
It might be neither, but the Americans Conservatives and wimpy democrats might frustrate the dream.

I could be wrong, but my feeling is that the Kikuyu factor in the next election will not so much be on account of numerical strength or their vote, but on account of fragmentation of their votes as they split their votes on different candidates. That is the dream of non-Kikuyu politicians, and Agwambo knows it.

Sajini,

One interesting fact about 2012; Kenya and US hold elections in the same year which, barring a snap election in either countries, should happen only once every 20 yrs.

On your first point I think the lunatic fringe of the conservative movement; the Teabaggers and the Birthers are a blessing in disguise for Obama. Reason being that they'll force the GOP to field a candidate from the extreme Right, effectively losing the moderate vote. For instance, I don't see Sarah of Alaska or Newt of the Kenyan-anti-colonial-worldview fame beating Obama.

As for the fragmentation of Kikuyu vote I think you are right on. It will be interesting also to see who Kibaki chooses to support. Will he abandon his deputy who helped salvage his second term? Or will he abandon RAO who enabled him to sign a new constitution which he can later point to as his legacy? How about UK who quit as leader of opposition and supposedly put his own ambitions on hold to support his re-election?

Njau ya Mbogo,
Just a response about the fringe of teh US conservative movement. There was a time I used to dismiss them as too extreme to pose any danger to the mainstream. Following their recent triumphs and the fact that they are polling very well in New York, Nevada, Florida, Alaska and Kentucky, they can no longer be dismissed as unelectable. If the movement co-opts the opportunists in the GOP, Obama is toast in 2012. The jury is still out.

Your point RAO and UK is very interesting. Personally, I think UK stands a better chance in 2017 once the constitution Euphoria has settled. The support from Central Kenya will make him a strong candidate in 2012, but not a winner. Kibaki's endorsement will be immaterial since his leutenants will not see the political benefits of supporting his choice. Kibaki is only interested in his legacy and I do not see him hitting the campaign trail to stump for anybody.